All predictions · Middle East

P235
Saudi Arabia and UAE will align with Israel after the US withdraws from the Middle East

What Jiang said

“And then you have Saudi Arabia and UAE who are like, okay, let's join Israel, okay? But the GCC, regardless of what happens, will no longer be a major geopolitical factor in the Middle East anymore.”

Analysis

Weak GCC states must ally with strong powers. Saudi Arabia and UAE will choose Israel over Iran as their protector.

Source lecture

• Game Theory #16

Status history

• 2026-05-23 · Pending (glm)

Related predictions

• P234Qatar and Oman will align with Iran rather than Israel/US as the Gulf Cooperation Council fractures Pending
• P236The Gulf Cooperation Council will cease to be a major geopolitical factor in the Middle East after the US-Iran war Pending
• P237Iran will charge tolls for passage through the Strait of Hormuz as part of its war strategy Pending
• P238Iran will strategically allow Chinese ships to pass through the Strait of Hormuz while restricting others Pending
• P239Israel will absorb the AI surveillance infrastructure and data centers of Saudi Arabia and UAE to become the Middle East's AI epicenter Pending