Still open: waiting on events (After US retreat from Middle East).
P235
Saudi Arabia and UAE will align with Israel after the US withdraws from the Middle East
What Jiang said
“And then you have Saudi Arabia and UAE who are like, okay, let's join Israel, okay? But the GCC, regardless of what happens, will no longer be a major geopolitical factor in the Middle East anymore.”
Analysis
Weak GCC states must ally with strong powers. Saudi Arabia and UAE will choose Israel over Iran as their protector.
Status history
- 2026-05-23 · Pending (glm)
-
2026-09-25 ·
Pending → Likely Confirmed
(deepseek-v4.1-flash+claude-sonnet-5)
Headlines show UAE actively aligning with Israel amid Iran tensions and diverging from Saudi Arabia, suggesting partial fragmentation of Gulf unity favoring Israel alignment, though full US withdrawal and Saudi alignment remain unconfirmed. · Source: Israel and the UAE find common cause as the Iran war cracks old Middle East alliances - CNN (Fri, 01 May 2026 07:00:00 GMT) -
2026-09-25 ·
Likely Confirmed → Pending
(rejudge:deepseek-v4.1-flash)
Re-checked with the date rule + auditor: re-judged not_yet; no supported lean