Set aside: this claim can't be checked against events, so it is not scored.
P238
Iran will strategically allow Chinese ships to pass through the Strait of Hormuz while restricting others
What Jiang said
“The military is strategically control the Strait of Hormuz so that Chinese ships can pass, right? Because Chinese ships are the main buyer of Iranian oil.”
Analysis
Iran's military strategy includes economic considerations - China is the main buyer of Iranian oil, so their ships get preferential treatment.
Status history
- 2026-05-23 · Pending (glm)
-
2026-09-25 ·
Pending → Likely Confirmed
(deepseek-v4.1-flash+claude-sonnet-5)
Multiple headlines (May 2026) report Iran allowing Chinese ships through Hormuz while other countries face restrictions, trending toward the prediction being confirmed though the war window may still be open. · Source: Iran says Chinese ships passed through Hormuz overnight - DW.com (Thu, 14 May 2026 07:00:00 GMT) -
2026-09-25 ·
Likely Confirmed → Pending
(rejudge:deepseek-v4.1-flash+claude-sonnet-5)
Re-checked with the date rule + auditor: auditor: The headlines confirm Iran let Chinese ships pass but don't establish the 'restricting others' half of the prediction, so the full claim isn't settled as confirmed. -
2026-09-25 ·
Pending → Unverifiable
(manual)
Not a forecast (claim audit 2026-09-26, operator-approved): in the 2026-03-26 lecture Jiang described something already true or under way. He uses present-tense framing ('is strategically control... so that Chinese ships can pass') describing an ongoing state rather than a future event.