🔥 Evidence Radar

What's moving right now

🔥 4 surging 79 moving 272 quiet 351 open calls tracked

Updated October 5, 2026

🔥 The mover · most active right now

“Alberta voters will hold a ballot referendum in October 2026 on whether to pursue a plan for independence from Canada.”

↗ moving toward this The news right now runs toward this happening.
← away · less likely← less likelyundecidedmore likely · toward →more likely →
🔥 9 stories this week

Surging · ~2.8× the usual pace

How loud the chatter is — a loud topic is not a likely outcome.

Evidence pointing toward it
Also moving this week

“Bari Weiss will become head of both CNN and CBS News”

7 this week
↘ against

Mark Thompson safe at CNN for now — but Bari Weiss could still loom over network’s future: reportNew York Post · Oct 2Read

“The Dubai plane hijacking incident was probably a minor real event that Israeli media and politicians blew up into a false-flag narrative.”

6 this week
↗ toward

Co-pilot accused of trying to hijack Flydubai plane probably acted alone, Israeli sources sayWSVN · Oct 4Read

“Europe will go to war with Russia”

Our read: Likely Wrong
4 this week
↗ toward

Europe fortifies itself against Russia’s hybrid warenglish.elpais.com · Oct 3Read

“Trump will shift US policy from not supporting Taiwan independence to openly opposing Taiwan independence and supporting China-Taiwan unification.”

0 this week
↘ against

US: "No Change in Taiwan Policy"... Gaps Remain After Trump-Xi Summit아시아경제 · Sep 28Read

“US will invade Cuba”

0 this week
↗ toward

US preparing to invade Cuba, CBS News reportsnewsukraine.rbc.ua · Sep 27Read

“The US will take over Greenland to block China/Russia from Arctic access to Western Hemisphere”

Our read: Likely Confirmed
1 this week
↗ toward

The U.S., Denmark, and Greenland Reached a Security Deal. Here’s What to Know.Council on Foreign Relations (CFR) · Sep 29Read

Recently settled · off the radar, on the record

Once a call is proven true or false it leaves the radar and joins the scored record. It stays here for 90 days so you can see what just came true — or didn't.

Quiet
272 predictions with no notable news this week