How Accurate Are Professor Jiang Xueqin's Predictions?
Professor Jiang Xueqin is a Yale-educated geopolitical analyst who has taught at Tsinghua University and Peking University. Through his Predictive History YouTube channel, he has published lectures covering topics from the collapse of the American Empire and the rise of Pax Judaica to the restructuring of global alliances and the onset of World War III. This page examines his track record on the 340 specific, falsifiable predictions extracted from those lectures.
Every prediction is timestamped to the exact video and moment it was made, categorized by topic, and tracked as real-world events unfold. The result is one of the most comprehensive public accuracy analyses of any geopolitical forecaster working today.
Overall Accuracy Score
Out of the 20 predictions that have been definitively resolved (confirmed or wrong), 15 were correct and 5 were clearly falsified. That gives Professor Jiang a 75% accuracy rate on predictions where we can assess the outcome. 295 predictions remain pending — many concern events projected for 2026 and beyond, so this number will continue to evolve as geopolitical developments unfold.
Confirmed Predictions (15)
These have been verified by real-world events. Each one is traceable to a specific lecture with a timestamp, and the confirming evidence is documented on our main tracker. Click any prediction ID for the full detail page.
Wrong Predictions (5)
Credibility comes from transparency. We track what Professor Jiang got wrong with the same rigor as what he got right. Hiding failures would undermine the entire purpose of this project.
Methodology
Every prediction tracked on this site is extracted directly from Professor Jiang's YouTube lectures on the Predictive History channel. Our process:
- Extraction: Transcripts are read by an LLM that identifies specific, falsifiable claims about future events. Vague statements or general analysis are excluded. Every extracted prediction is reviewed for source-quote integrity.
- Timestamping: Each prediction is linked to the exact video and timestamp where it was made, so anyone can verify the source.
- Categorization: Predictions are tagged by topic (US politics, Iran, Israel, China, global economy, etc.) and by the lecture they originate from.
- Status tracking: An automated news-resolution pass runs daily against Google News headlines, conservatively flipping predictions to confirmed or wrong only when clear, citeable evidence exists. When in doubt, status stays pending.
- Audit trail: Every status change is recorded in an append-only history log with the source URL, reasoning, and judge ("codex" for AI-resolved, "manual" for human-resolved). Nothing is silently rewritten.
We do not editorialize on the predictions themselves. Our role is to track outcomes, not to advocate for or against any particular geopolitical viewpoint. The data speaks for itself.
Still Pending
295 of Professor Jiang's 340 tracked predictions remain pending. Many concern large-scale geopolitical shifts that may take years to fully resolve: the restructuring of the global financial system, the evolution of China's role in a post-American world order, the long-term trajectory of the Israel-Iran conflict, and the broader contours of what Jiang calls World War III.
Some pending predictions are time-sensitive and will be resolved within 2026. Others are structural forecasts about civilizational shifts that may not be assessable for a decade or more. The tracker auto-updates as events unfold.