How Accurate Are Professor Jiang Xueqin's Predictions?
Professor Jiang Xueqin is a Yale-educated geopolitical analyst who has taught at Tsinghua University and Peking University. Through his Predictive History YouTube channel, he has published over 24 video lectures covering topics from the collapse of the American Empire and the rise of Pax Judaica to the restructuring of global alliances and the onset of World War III. This page examines his track record.
Between April 2024 and March 2026, Professor Jiang made at least 111 distinct, verifiable geopolitical predictions across these lectures. We have extracted each prediction from the original YouTube transcripts, timestamped it, categorized it by topic, and tracked its outcome as real-world events unfolded. The result is one of the most comprehensive public accuracy analyses of any geopolitical forecaster working today.
Overall Accuracy Score
Out of the 21 predictions that have been definitively resolved (confirmed, partially confirmed, or wrong), 18 were at least partially correct and only 3 were clearly falsified. This gives Professor Jiang a roughly 86% accuracy rate on predictions where we can assess the outcome. It is worth noting that 81 predictions remain pending, many of which concern events projected for 2026 and beyond, so this number will evolve as geopolitical developments continue.
The partially confirmed category includes predictions where the broad thrust was correct but specific details differed, or where events are still developing in the direction Jiang predicted but have not yet fully materialized. We count these separately from fully confirmed predictions to maintain analytical rigor.
Confirmed Predictions
These are predictions that have been verified by real-world events. Each one is traceable to a specific lecture with a timestamp, and the confirming evidence is documented on our main tracker.
The Trump and Vance predictions were made months before the 2024 Republican National Convention when many analysts still considered other candidates viable. The Iran predictions, while taking longer to materialize, demonstrated Jiang's understanding of the strategic trajectory of US-Israel-Iran relations. For the complete list of confirmed and partially confirmed predictions, visit the full prediction tracker.
Wrong Predictions
Credibility comes from transparency. We track what Professor Jiang got wrong with the same rigor as what he got right. Hiding failures would undermine the entire purpose of this project.
Notably, while Jiang initially predicted Nikki Haley as the VP pick, he later corrected course and predicted JD Vance (P002b), which turned out to be correct. This self-correction is itself a data point about his analytical process: he updates his models as new information becomes available rather than stubbornly clinging to earlier predictions.
The other two wrong predictions relate to specific tactical details within broader strategic frameworks that were directionally correct. In each case, the general trend Jiang identified was sound, but the specific mechanism or timeline was off. This pattern is common among strategic forecasters who operate at the macro level.
Methodology
Every prediction tracked on this site is extracted directly from Professor Jiang's YouTube lectures on the Predictive History channel. Our process is as follows:
- Extraction: We transcribe each lecture and identify specific, falsifiable claims about future events. Vague statements or general analysis are excluded.
- Timestamping: Each prediction is linked to the exact video and timestamp where it was made, so anyone can verify the source.
- Categorization: Predictions are tagged by topic (US politics, Iran, Israel, China, global economy, etc.) and by the lecture they originate from.
- Status tracking: As world events unfold, we update each prediction's status to confirmed, partially confirmed, wrong, pending, or unverifiable.
- Evidence: For confirmed and wrong predictions, we document the real-world event that resolves the prediction and link to news sources where possible.
We do not editorialize on the predictions themselves. Our role is to track outcomes, not to advocate for or against any particular geopolitical viewpoint. The data speaks for itself.
Still Pending
As of March 2026, 81 of Professor Jiang's 111 predictions remain pending. Many of these concern large-scale geopolitical shifts that may take years to fully resolve: the restructuring of the global financial system, the evolution of China's role in a post-American world order, the long-term trajectory of the Israel-Iran conflict, and the broader contours of what Jiang calls World War III.
Some pending predictions are time-sensitive and will be resolved within 2026. Others are structural forecasts about civilizational shifts that may not be assessable for a decade or more. We will continue updating the tracker as events unfold.