Professor Jiang Xueqin's Geopolitical Predictions

He called the Iran war, Trump's comeback, and the fall of Khamenei — all on camera, before they happened. Every forecast is here, with the lecture it came from and what has happened since.

446 predictions. 77% accuracy.

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Browse all 446 predictions → How we score them →

Independent archive · Not affiliated with Jiang Xueqin

Globe centred on the Middle East, with the places his predictions are about marked in gold
Jiang Xueqin Historian · host of Predictive History “Welcome to the end of the world.” 446 predictions from 181 lectures
77%

17 right · 5 wrong of 22 settled

363 still open · 61 unverifiable · 446 tracked

How we score →

Accuracy = confirmed ÷ (confirmed + wrong). Only proven outcomes are scored.

Live · what's moving now “Alberta voters will hold a ballot referendum in October 2026 on whether to pursue a plan for independence from Canada.” 9 stories in the news this week · surging · ~2.8× the usual pace · evidence: leaning toward it See all 79 moving predictions on the live radar →

Explore the predictions

All 446 predictions →
Middle East The Iran war 65 predictions · 9 right, 2 wrong so far Confirmed Nuclear weapons will NOT be used in the Iran war Middle East Israel & the region 42 predictions · 2 right, 0 wrong so far Confirmed Iran will close the Strait of Hormuz Great powers China & the Pacific 48 predictions · 1 right, 1 wrong so far Confirmed China will NOT significantly participate in the Iran conflict Great powers Russia & Europe 45 predictions · 1 right, 1 wrong so far Confirmed Putin will visit China shortly after Trump leaves China. America America at home 77 predictions · 2 right, 1 wrong so far Confirmed Trump will win the 2024 Presidential election America The Americas 27 predictions · 1 right, 0 wrong so far Confirmed America will attack Venezuela Economy & ideas The world order 59 predictions · none settled yet Likely Confirmed Global famine and ecological disasters will increase over the next few years Economy & ideas Money & machines 61 predictions · 1 right, 0 wrong so far Confirmed The United States under Trump will launch trade wars against Canada, Mexico, and likely the European Union. Economy & ideas Faith & the end times 22 predictions · none settled yet Likely Wrong Christian Zionists will force the US into ground invasion of Iran (fulfilling biblical prophecy)

Not Scored Yet

Open or set aside 424 · not counted in the score
  • Likely confirmed 15
  • Likely wrong 10
  • Pending 338
  • Unverifiable 61

Confidence Calibration

Upcoming Predictions (2026-2028)

See the full 2026-2028 forecast →

Categories

The frameworks behind the forecasts

See all frameworks →

Jiang doesn't forecast by gut feeling — he reasons from a stack of reusable analytical frameworks. These are the 5 named Laws of Game Theory and 7 core models that generate most of his predictions.

Parent law
The Universal Law of Game Theory
Win = Mass × Energy × Coordination
Law 1
The Law of Asymmetry
An empire's strengths become its fatal weaknesses.
Law 2
The Law of Escalation
Control beats dominance — calibration wins wars.
Law 3
The Law of Eschatological Convergence
Where the world's end-time stories agree, the future is written.
Law 4
The Law of Proximity
The game inside a nation decides how it acts toward others.
Model
Energy, Openness & Cohesion
The three traits that decide who rises and who falls.
Model
The Rise and Fall of Empires
The poor margins always conquer a rotten center.
Model
The Chessboard
Read any nation as a six-piece chess set.
Model
The Hollywood–Pentagon Complex
When a country fights for the camera, it forgets how to fight the war.
Model
AI as God — The Holy Empire of Reason
The data-center boom, read as an attempt to build God — and rule through Him.
Model
The Dollar-Empire Grand Bargain
Turning paper into gold is “the power of God” — until the army that backs it is doubted.
Model
Reality as Hallucination
If no one perceives reality directly, then geopolitics is a war of perception.

Prediction Alerts

He called the Iran war 2 years early. Get emailed the moment his next predictions are confirmed — or proven wrong.