All predictions · US-Iran War

P022
Iran's strategy is to lure America into a ground invasion, then fight defensive/guerrilla war in mountains

Analysis

Iran cannot beat America in open warfare. IRGC strategy: provoke through escalation until America invades, then fight defensively in mountainous terrain. GT#10: Iran's strategy is 'hide and seek' — absorb bombing in mountains, then lob drones/rockets at GCC and Israel to force America to come back. 'Iran can do this for years and years.'

Source lectures

• Geo-Strategy #7
• Geo-Strategy Update #2
• Game Theory #10

Status history

• 2026-05-22 · Pending (migration)

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