Leaning, not settled: the evidence points one way, but it is not scored yet.
P023
The American strategy of bombs, propaganda, and money will NOT work against Iran
What Jiang said
“Personally, I think the strategy won't work. Um first of all, bombs don't really work with the geography of Iran. Remember Iran, it is a mountainous terrain. Um, so it's it's a huge huge country. It's three times the size of Iraq. So I'm not I'm not um convinced that um air strikes will do any real lasting damage to the infrastructure of Iran. propaganda. New York Times, CNN, BBC have absolutely no credibility today.”
Analysis
Bombs won't work (mountainous terrain 3x Iraq), propaganda has no credibility, money/internal dissent won't work (Iranians identify as Persians with 5,000-year civilization). GT#10 provides full theoretical framework (Law of Asymmetry): technology → dependency/hubris, propaganda → censorship/no internal debate, money → unreliable mercenaries. Each American 'advantage' actually strengthens Iran by creating energy, openness, and cohesion.
Status history
- 2026-05-22 · Imported into the tracker as Pending (bulk import — the status it already had, not the date it was decided)
-
2026-06-11 ·
Pending → Partially Confirmed
(glm)
Multiple sources describe the US bombing campaign as lacking an endgame strategy and failing to translate destruction into political success, but the war remains ongoing so a final verdict is premature. · Source: ‘Destruction is not the same as political success’: US bombing of Iran shows little evidence of endgame strategy - The Conversation (Mon, 02 Mar 2026 08:00:00 GMT) -
2026-06-18 ·
Partially Confirmed → Likely Confirmed
(glm)
Multiple headlines indicate the U.S. strategy is faltering — the Defense Secretary admits there is no Iran plan, Iranian strikes breached U.S. air defenses, and commentators question whether the regime is prevailing — but the war is ongoing and Trump is still actively pursuing the strategy, so this is not settled. · Source: Hegseth to Congress: We Have No Iran Plan, But Give Us 1.5 Trillion Anyway. - Mother Jones (Wed, 29 Apr 2026 07:00:00 GMT)