P013
The US will send ground troops into Iran
Analysis
All three major players (Iran, Israel, Trump) want ground troops deployed for different reasons. Iran wants to trap them, Israel wants to weaken America, Trump wants to use it politically. In GT#10, Jiang says Iran's guerrilla strategy is specifically designed to force America to invade.
Source lectures
- Geo-Strategy Update #2
- Geo-Strategy #8
- Geo-Strategy Update #4
- Geo-Strategy Update #5
- Game Theory #10
Status history
- 2026-05-22 · Pending (migration)
-
2026-06-17 ·
Pending → Wrong
(claude)
The US military prepared a ground mission but Trump explicitly paused it, and headline 1 (Jun 17) reports Trump admitting regime change failed while Vance called a ground offensive 'a tragedy,' indicating the war concluded without ground troops entering Iran. · Source: Exclusive: US military rushed to prepare ground mission to capture Iran’s uranium, but Trump paused it, sources say - CNN (Fri, 12 Jun 2026 16:37:24 GMT) -
2026-06-17 ·
Wrong → Likely Wrong
(manual)
Reclassified from terminal 'wrong' to non-terminal 'leaning_wrong': this forward-looking prediction was prematurely falsified by a ceasefire/pause while its window remains open. Introduces the leaning_* model (2026-06-17); resolve.py will re-judge it going forward. -
2026-06-24 ·
Likely Wrong → Likely Confirmed
(glm)
The US military rushed to prepare a ground mission to capture Iran's uranium and Trump only paused — not cancelled — it, while still refusing to rule out deployment, so evidence trends toward it happening with the war window still open. · Source: Exclusive: US military rushed to prepare ground mission to capture Iran’s uranium, but Trump paused it, sources say - CNN (Fri, 12 Jun 2026 07:00:00 GMT)