Settled: this call is scored in the track record.
P015
Shock and Awe doctrine will fail in Iran
What Jiang said
“but our next class we'll discuss Iran and Iran is not a desert it's mountains and I'll show you that shock andol is not going to work in Iran okay but that's next class”
Analysis
Doctrine succeeded in Iraq (flat desert, no air defenses). Iran is mountainous terrain. US military has no real war experience, driven by hubris. GT#10 theorizes technology creates dependency and hubris, not innovation.
Framework behind this prediction
This prediction is a direct application of Jiang's analytical framework:
Status history
- 2026-05-22 · Imported into the tracker as Pending (bulk import — the status it already had, not the date it was decided)
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2026-05-25 ·
Pending → Confirmed
(codex)
Reporting indicates the campaign shifted from initial shock-and-awe bombardment to prolonged pressure without a decisive outcome, matching the prediction that the doctrine failed in Iran. · Source: ‘No clear strategy’: how Trump went from shock and awe to wait and see in Iran - The Guardian