Settled: this call is scored in the track record.
P012
The US will bomb Iranian nuclear facilities
What Jiang said
“As you know, last night Trump ordered the bombing of three Iranian um nuclear facilities and this will mark the beginning of World War II.”
Analysis
Trump ordered bombing of three Iranian nuclear facilities, marking the beginning of WWIII per the speaker.
Framework behind this prediction
This prediction is a direct application of Jiang's analytical framework:
Status history
- 2026-05-22 · Imported into the tracker as Confirmed (bulk import — the status it already had, not the date it was decided)