P004
Second American Civil War is very likely -- a series of violent episodes over 10-50 years

Status: Pending
Predicted
June 2024
Timeline
10-50 years (ongoing escalation)
Category
US Domestic
Confidence
High

Analysis

Multiple forms: riots, neighbor-on-neighbor conflict, state/city secession (NYC, California, Boston), insurgencies, military coups (Special Forces). Driven by collapse of national narratives, institutional distrust, over-militarization.

Source lectures

Status history

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