Still open: waiting on events (10-50 years (ongoing escalation)).
P004
Second American Civil War is very likely -- a series of violent episodes over 10-50 years
What Jiang said
“the Civil War will not be one event but it will be a series of violent episodes over 10 20 50 years okay does that make sense so let's go over these events okay the first thing that would probably happen are sort of riots and unrests okay and we saw that during the first Trump presidency uh because because of the George FL Floyd black lives matter protest okay so we'll see more of that when Trump becomes president where um people are so angry at this election they'll start rioting okay and there'll be a lot of unrest um second is basically civil uh conflict meaning that neighbors take guns against each other so um America is divided between left and right but there actually pockets America where left and right are very closely they live very closely with with each other okay so it's very it's very likely that take arms against each other but these would be small isolated Affairs where maybe one or two people get killed okay so you have civil conflict then you have state or city secession secession sorry I spelled this wrong secession meaning that you have maybe one City New York City City or one state California and they're so disgusted by the State of Affairs they declare independence okay they succeed and guess what they have their own Army their citizens are armed okay but they'll most likely be attacked by other states or different groups okay so that would be a more major conflict okay then you have uh what we call insurgencies so basically um a political group who's trying to form a government of some sort okay so it's possible that you have Christian extremists or maybe leftwing extremists who try to overthrow the government of I don't know uh New York or Virginia okay right then you have um kudas where basically arm of the military maybe Special Forces most probably Special Forces tries to overthrow the government okay um so I think in because of the way things are structured in the next civil war um all these things will happen at once okay and they'll build on top of each other but remember that America it's a very large country so there could be a lot of places where it's very peaceful there's no war okay but there could also be some places like New York City or Los Angeles where um there's just a lot of violence going on okay does that make sense”
Analysis
Multiple forms: riots, neighbor-on-neighbor conflict, state/city secession (NYC, California, Boston), insurgencies, military coups (Special Forces). Driven by collapse of national narratives, institutional distrust, over-militarization.
Status history
- 2026-05-22 · Imported into the tracker as Pending (bulk import — the status it already had, not the date it was decided)