Jiang Xueqin's Wrong Predictions: Every Miss on Record
Professor Jiang Xueqin has gotten six predictions wrong. As of August 10, 2026, that is the complete count — six failed predictions against sixteen that came true, out of 376 calls logged from his lectures on the Predictive History channel. We publish the misses in full because a tracker that buries them is just a fan page; a record you can check against the news is the only kind worth keeping.
Headline accuracy sits at 73% — sixteen confirmed divided by twenty-two resolved. That denominator is small, and the bulk of the corpus, 337 predictions, is still open. What follows is every prediction Jiang Xueqin has gotten wrong so far: what he said, when he said it, and what happened instead.
The clean misses
Three predictions failed the simplest way possible — a deadline arrived, and the opposite occurred.
Jiang's May 2024 call (P002a) that Donald Trump would pick Nikki Haley as his running mate ended at the Republican Convention two months later, when Trump chose JD Vance. The miss is slightly hedged: Jiang had simultaneously flagged Vance as the strong alternative (P002b), a call that confirmed. But the primary prediction — Haley on the ticket — was wrong.
That same month (P040), Jiang predicted Muhammad Mokhber, the IRGC-aligned acting vice president, would win Iran's snap June 2024 election, held after President Ebrahim Raisi's death. Masoud Pezeshkian won the July runoff instead.
Then in June 2024 (P064), riding Emmanuel Macron's surprise dissolution of the National Assembly, Jiang said Marine Le Pen's party could govern France within three months. It placed third. The left-wing New Popular Front took the most seats.
The events that never happened
Two misses are predictions of things that simply did not come to pass.
In May 2024 (P017), Jiang forecast with high confidence that Vladimir Putin would declare a nuclear umbrella over Iran — warning, in effect, that any nuclear use would invite Russian retaliation. Through the entirety of the US-Iran war, including confirmed US strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities (P012), no such declaration ever came.
The next (P072), from summer 2025, predicted a Sino-Russian falling-out, arguing that Russia wages a "civilizational war for God" while a "godless, materialistic" China earns its contempt. Through 2026 the two powers remain aligned, and the predicted split has not materialized.
The contested verdict
One of the six is softer than the others — and we flag it rather than tuck it away.
Jiang has argued since 2024 (P021) that the US-Iran conflict constitutes World War III. It is currently scored as wrong, the verdict that pulled headline accuracy down to its current 73%. But unlike the Haley or Le Pen calls, this one was not settled by a clean outcome: the war is ongoing, and the resolution was issued against a ceasefire that broke within hours. It is the single entry on this list the tracker itself holds open for review. Count it as a miss today — but read it with the caveat that the underlying claim, how far the conflict ultimately spreads, is still developing.
What the misses cost his record
Six wrong out of twenty-two resolved is a real but bounded blemish. Jiang's confirmed calls cluster heavily in the arc he knows best: the shape and escalation of the US-Iran war, the Strait of Hormuz closure (P026), the decapitation strike against Ayatollah Khamenei (P088), the destruction of Iran's navy (P105). Where he has missed, it has tended to be on electoral horse-races and counter-intuitive alliance forecasts — the categories most forecasters get wrong.
The honest read is that Jiang Xueqin's wrong predictions exist, they are numbered here in full, and they sit alongside a larger set of calls that the news has borne out. The complete ledger — right and wrong, each tied to its source — stays open at every Predictive History miss on record. Another 337 predictions are still pending. The numbers will move.
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