Status: Confirmed
Settled: this call is scored in the track record.

P088
Decapitation strike kills Ayatollah Khamenei

What Jiang said

“So in the early morning of Saturday uh in Tran the Israelis and Americans launched a decapitation strike against the Alatona uh Hami who is the supreme leader of Iran. Now there are arguments and and disputes about as to what happened. The Americans and Israelis said that they had real intelligence about where the leader was and so they sent airplanes to just bomb the crap out of a place.”

Analysis

Not a prediction but a reported event: US and Israel launched decapitation strike killing Khamenei, family members, and ~150 schoolchildren in south Tehran.

Framework behind this prediction

This prediction is a direct application of Jiang's analytical framework:

Status history

  • 2026-05-22 · Imported into the tracker as Confirmed (bulk import — the status it already had, not the date it was decided)

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