Settled: this call is scored in the track record.
P026
Iran will close the Strait of Hormuz
What Jiang said
“And once the resolve, once the will to fight has been increased to a certain level, then the Iranian government can close off the straight of Humus, which would compel an American ground invasion.”
Analysis
Once population's will to fight is high enough, Iran closes the strait. This strangles GCC economies and Japan.
Framework behind this prediction
This prediction is a direct application of Jiang's analytical framework:
Status history
- 2026-05-22 · Imported into the tracker as Confirmed (bulk import — the status it already had, not the date it was decided)