Settled: this call is scored in the track record.
P016
Nuclear weapons will NOT be used in the Iran war
What Jiang said
“So I think we can discount um the use of nukes in this war. um we have to we would have to reach a very uh high point in escalation ladder for even nukes to be considered in this war. Okay. So I think like for the purpose purpose of analysis let's discount the possibility of nukes.”
Analysis
Taboo, America would lose credibility, Putin has likely communicated through back channels that he would retaliate.
Framework behind this prediction
This prediction is a direct application of Jiang's analytical framework:
Status history
- 2026-05-22 · Imported into the tracker as Partially Confirmed (bulk import — the status it already had, not the date it was decided)
-
2026-06-17 ·
Partially Confirmed → Confirmed
(claude)
After 101+ days of Iran War, a ceasefire/deal is being finalized with no indication nuclear weapons were used at any point in the conflict. · Source: 101 days of Iran War: Trump says deal could be signed in 2-3 days - KCRA (Tue, 09 Jun 2026 11:38:00 GMT)