All predictions · Global Order

P298
South Korea will collapse as a nation-state before 2040

What Jiang said

“I'd be surprised if South Korea were to face collapse as a nation-state by 2040”

Analysis

Fertility rate of 0.6-0.8 creates demographic collapse where working-age population disappears. Without workers, economy collapses and country cannot field an army to defend against North Korea.

Source lecture

• Game Theory #1

Status history

• 2026-05-25 · Pending (glm)

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