Still open: waiting on events (Before 2040).
P298
South Korea will collapse as a nation-state before 2040
What Jiang said
“I'd be surprised if South Korea were to face collapse as a nation-state by 2040”
Analysis
Fertility rate of 0.6-0.8 creates demographic collapse where working-age population disappears. Without workers, economy collapses and country cannot field an army to defend against North Korea.
Status history
- 2026-05-25 · Pending (glm)