All predictions · Global Economy

P196
Iran war will cause famine in Africa and parts of South Asia due to fertilizer shortage from disrupted sulfur supply

What Jiang said

“It is because of fertilizer that we are that we are allowed to support 8 billion people. If we didn't have access to fertilizer, we could only grow enough food to support 1 to 2 billion people. And unfortunately, this means that Africa and parts of South South Asia, a lot of people there will starve to death”

Analysis

The war is disrupting sulfur supply needed for fertilizer during planting season; without fertilizer, world can only support 1-2 billion people instead of 8 billion, causing mass starvation

Source lecture

• Game Theory #19

Status history

• 2026-05-23 · Pending (glm)

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