Leaning, not settled: the evidence points one way, but it is not scored yet.
P198
America will seize control of Greenland to block China and Russia from Arctic access to the Western Hemisphere
What Jiang said
“What we can expect next is for Trump to exert authority over Greenland. Why? Because this is the Arctic choke point, okay? Which gives you access to Canada uh and to Europe as well”
Analysis
Greenland is the Arctic choke point giving access to Canada and Europe; Trump will assert authority there as part of America's strategy to control the world's strategic maritime choke points
Status history
- 2026-05-23 · Pending (glm)
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2026-09-25 ·
Pending → Likely Confirmed
(deepseek-v4.1-flash+claude-sonnet-5)
Trump announced a 'permanent' security control agreement with Denmark over Greenland, plus base access and forever-clause demands, trending toward US control but short of outright seizure or China/Russia exclusion being confirmed. · Source: Trump announces agreement with Denmark to secure ‘permanent’ control over Greenland’s security - NBC News (Sat, 19 Sep 2026 08:15:00 GMT)