All predictions · China

P151
China will be dependent on the US for energy for 10 years due to Iran war and Malacca blockade

What Jiang said

“You can build it up, but it's going to take you 10 20 years time. And then and what do you do for the next 10 years, right? Your people needs need food to eat. You need energy to fuel your factories. And so for the next 10 years, you have no choice but to work with the United States.”

Analysis

With Iran at war and Strait of Malacca controlled by the US, China cannot access sufficient oil from Russia (20-40% max) and will be forced to buy from the US for about 10 years until alternative trade routes can be built

Source lecture

• Game Theory #21

Status history

• 2026-05-23 · Pending (glm)

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