Still open: waiting on events (2026-2027).
P150
The Iran war will trigger a global economic depression
What Jiang said
“Basically, it can take offline onethird of the world's energy supply. And this would of course cause an economic depression.”
Analysis
The combination of Strait of Hormuz closure, Red Sea attacks, and pipeline destruction will disable one-third of world energy, causing economic depression
Status history
- 2026-05-23 · Pending (glm)
-
2026-09-25 ·
Pending → Likely Wrong
(deepseek-v4.1-flash+claude-sonnet-5)
A June ceasefire led the IMF to drop its recession warning and an FT piece explicitly asks why the war didn't cause a recession, though the window through 2027 remains open. · Source: IMF Drops Recession Warning in Wake of June Ceasefire - WSJ (Wed, 08 Jul 2026 07:00:00 GMT) -
2026-09-25 ·
Likely Wrong → Pending
(rejudge:deepseek-v4.1-flash+claude-sonnet-5)
Re-checked with the date rule + auditor: auditor: The ceasefire easing recession fears is offset by later headlines (re-escalation risk, IMF's Sept 24 energy crisis warning) showing the trend is mixed and window remains open through 2027, so no clear leaning_wrong trend is established.