P122
Power of Siberia 2 pipeline will not be signed anytime soon as China avoids over-dependence on Russia

What Jiang said

“They have not done so and a lot of it is because China does not want to become too dependent on Russia because obviously if you build this pipeline then you must buy a lot of energy from Russia.”

Analysis

China doesn't want complete energy dependence on Russia; negotiating over price and volume

Status history

• 2026-05-22 · Pending (glm)
• 2026-09-25 · Pending → Likely Confirmed (deepseek-v4.1-flash+claude-sonnet-5)
  As of April-May 2026, Putin and Xi met multiple times but failed to sign the Power of Siberia 2 deal, consistent with the prediction that it would not be signed soon. · Source: Putin and Xi Sign Over 40 Deals in Beijing, Fail to Reach Power of Siberia 2 Pipeline Breakthrough - NewsCord (Wed, 15 Apr 2026 07:00:00 GMT)

Related predictions

• P121Germany plans to have troops in Ukraine by 2029 as Europe moves toward total war with Russia Pending
• P123US treasury rates will rise to 6% or higher as global buyers refuse to purchase US debt Unverifiable
• P120If America collapses internally, US military will fragment and find new host nation-states in Japan, Germany, and Israel Pending
• P119Putin's strategy with China is to maintain neutrality - the worst outcome is China siding with US against Russia Pending
• P118South Korea will lose 80% of its population in 50 years due to 0.81 fertility rate while North Korea will survive with 1.81 Pending