Still open: waiting on events (Long-term/structural).
P411
China will not invade Taiwan.
What Jiang said
“How would that work? If China wants to take Taiwan, United States is not going to go defend Taiwan.”
Analysis
Jiang argues China is in a state of paralysis with no one actually in charge, making any decisive military action like a Taiwan invasion extremely unlikely because no leader has the authority to make such a contentious decision.
Status history
- 2026-09-26 · Pending (deepseek-v4.1-flash)