Still open: waiting on events (Fall 2026).
P367
Netanyahu will likely lose the upcoming Israeli elections this fall, triggering civil disruption in Israel.
What Jiang said
“there are elections coming up in Israel uh in the fall and Netanyahu will probably lose um and this will create a lot of civil disruption”
Analysis
He argues this is a better lever against Israel than direct Iranian military strikes, which would only unify the country behind Netanyahu.
Status history
- 2026-07-18 · Pending (claude_extract)