All predictions · Japan

P326
A future East Asian conflict will involve Japan and South Korea rather than being a direct US-China war over Taiwan.

What Jiang said

“I do not think um the conflict will be between United States and China I think it will involve Japan and South Korea”

Analysis

He argues that the coming East Asian conflict will not center on the Taiwan Strait or a direct US-China clash. Instead, he expects Japan and South Korea to be involved, though he admits he does not know the exact mechanism.

Source lecture

• Civilization #31

Status history

• 2026-05-27 · Pending (codex_extract)

Related predictions

• P325The United States under Trump will launch trade wars against Canada, Mexico, and likely the European Union. Pending
• P327Trump is likely to run for president again in 2028. Pending
• P337China will encourage North Korea to be more aggressive toward Japan and South Korea so China can position itself as the regional peacemaker and gain leverage against Japan's remilitarization Pending
• P263Japan is the only nation that will voluntarily have the elderly transfer power to the younger generation Pending
• P142Japan's defense budget will reach $300 billion within five years Pending