Status: Confirmed
Settled: this call is scored in the track record.

P325
The United States under Trump will launch trade wars against Canada, Mexico, and likely the European Union.

What Jiang said

“Trump has declared or is about to launch trade Wars against a lot of countries Canada Mexico quite possibly very quickly the the European Union”

Analysis

He frames this as part of a broader US-versus-the-world conflict after the end of the unipolar moment. He says the US is already in economic conflict with Russia and China and is expanding that approach to allies.

Status history

  • 2026-05-27 · Pending (codex_extract)
  • 2026-09-25 · Pending → Confirmed (deepseek-v4.1-flash+claude-sonnet-5+approved)
    Canada and Mexico tariffs were already declared when he spoke (Feb 2025); the forward call was the EU, and within weeks the US imposed 25% steel/aluminum tariffs covering the EU (March 2025) and 20% tariffs on EU goods (April 2025), an open trade war settled only by the July 2025 deal. · Source: A brief history of the EU–US trade talks in 2025 - DW.com (Mon, 28 Jul 2025)

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