Set aside: this claim can't be checked against events, so it is not scored.
P157
Sulfur prices will rise 57% due to the Iran war, affecting fertilizer and microchip manufacturing
What Jiang said
“So, sulfur um has risen in price by 57%. Sulfur is important for the manufacturer of both fertilizers as well as for microchips.”
Analysis
Sulfur is critical for both fertilizer and microchip production; Iran war has driven sulfur prices up 57%, disrupting both food and technology supply chains
Status history
- 2026-05-23 · Pending (glm)
-
2026-09-25 ·
Pending → Likely Confirmed
(deepseek-v4.1-flash+claude-sonnet-5)
A headline confirms sulfur shortages worldwide due to the Iran war, suggesting price pressure consistent with the prediction, but no specific 57% figure is confirmed yet. · Source: Iran war sulphur-shortage will have a world-wide impact - IntelliNews (Sun, 08 Mar 2026 08:00:00 GMT) -
2026-09-25 ·
Likely Confirmed → Pending
(rejudge:none)
Re-checked with the date rule + auditor: no news since the lecture -
2026-09-25 ·
Pending → Unverifiable
(manual)
Not a forecast (claim audit 2026-09-26, operator-approved): in the 2026-04-21 lecture Jiang described something already true or under way. He states sulfur 'has risen in price by 57%' as an already-occurred fact, with no forward-looking claim.