Still open: waiting on events (2026-2028).
P113
The yen carry trade will collapse, forcing Japan to repatriate money from US treasuries
What Jiang said
“As the political geopolitical situation gets worse and worse, Japan has no choice but to repatriate its money back from the United States. Basically selling US treasuries.”
Analysis
Japanese banks lend at 0% for corporations to buy US treasuries at 5%; as geopolitics worsens, Japan must sell treasuries
Status history
- 2026-05-22 · Pending (glm)
-
2026-09-25 ·
Pending → Likely Confirmed
(deepseek-v4.1-flash+claude-sonnet-5)
Multiple recent headlines describe yen surges, JGB yield spikes, carry trade unwinding fears, and explicit discussion of repatriation impacts on Treasuries, though a full collapse/repatriation event is not yet confirmed. · Source: The yen's sudden surge upsets the carry trade faithful - Reuters (Tue, 08 Sep 2026 07:00:00 GMT) -
2026-09-25 ·
Likely Confirmed → Pending
(rejudge:deepseek-v4.1-flash)
Re-checked with the date rule + auditor: re-judged not_yet; no supported lean