Leaning, not settled: the evidence points one way, but it is not scored yet.
P077
US stock market will collapse as GCC sovereign wealth funds pull out
What Jiang said
“The intention is, hey, if I cut off oil and these countries no longer have access to US dollars, they're forced to spend whatever resources they have on protecting themselves. Okay? And then guess what happens? The stock market collapses.”
Analysis
GCC heavily invested in US markets (AI: Nvidia, Microsoft, Google, Apple). When GCC must spend reserves on self-defense, stocks collapse.
Status history
- 2026-05-22 · Imported into the tracker as Pending (bulk import — the status it already had, not the date it was decided)
-
2026-06-22 ·
Pending → Likely Confirmed
(glm)
Headline 4 frames 'disappearing Gulf capital' as an active Iran-war risk to Wall Street, indicating the prediction's mechanism (GCC withdrawal) is materializing and trending toward the predicted outcome, though no actual US market collapse has occurred yet. · Source: Disappearing Gulf Capital: The Iran War Risk Wall Street Isn’t Watching - Council on Foreign Relations (Fri, 01 May 2026 07:00:00 GMT) -
2026-07-04 ·
Likely Confirmed → Likely Wrong
(glm)
No headline shows a US market collapse or GCC sovereign wealth funds pulling out — instead the Gulf is described as crisis-resilient and 'bouncing back' into a post-war phase, which trends against the prediction while the 'during the war' window appears to be closing but is not definitively closed. · Source: Gulf Sovereign Wealth Funds and the Cost of Crisis Resilience - Middle East Council on Global Affairs (Tue, 26 May 2026 02:07:14 GMT)