Settled: this call is scored in the track record.
P041
Mojtaba Khamenei will become the next Supreme Leader of Iran
What Jiang said
“this means is that um the political class goes away and the military class takes over”
Analysis
Conditional on IRGC theory being correct. Would create hereditary succession and 'political legitimacy crisis.'
Status history
- 2026-05-22 · Imported into the tracker as Pending (bulk import — the status it already had, not the date it was decided)
-
2026-05-29 ·
Pending → Confirmed
(codex)
Multiple current headlines refer to Mojtaba Khamenei as Iran’s Supreme Leader, indicating the predicted succession has occurred. · Source: Iran’s Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei has warned that US military bases in the Middle East may no longer be safe following American strikes in southern Iran.