All predictions · Iran Internal

P039
The IRGC most likely killed Iranian President Raisi (helicopter crash May 2024)

Analysis

Game theory: IRGC had strongest motive -- Raisi was leading candidate for next Supreme Leader and would reduce IRGC power. With Raisi gone, Khamenei's son Mojtaba becomes more likely successor (more dependent on IRGC).

Source lecture

• Geo-Strategy #7

Status history

• 2026-05-22 · Unverifiable (migration)

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