Set aside: this claim can't be checked against events, so it is not scored.
P039
The IRGC most likely killed Iranian President Raisi (helicopter crash May 2024)
Analysis
Game theory: IRGC had strongest motive -- Raisi was leading candidate for next Supreme Leader and would reduce IRGC power. With Raisi gone, Khamenei's son Mojtaba becomes more likely successor (more dependent on IRGC).
Status history
- 2026-05-22 · Imported into the tracker as Unverifiable (bulk import — the status it already had, not the date it was decided)