Settled: this call is scored in the track record.
P018
The US-Iran war will last many weeks, possibly many years
What Jiang said
“But I promise you that after this war is done, the world will never be the same again. So what what we will do these next few weeks is use game theory and understand and analyze the geopolitical situation. And so I'm going to teach you the ideas, the theories, the techniques to understand the world around you and make predictions.”
Analysis
Not a short conflict. 'After this war is done, the world will never be the same again.'
Framework behind this prediction
This prediction is a direct application of Jiang's analytical framework:
Status history
- 2026-05-22 · Imported into the tracker as Partially Confirmed (bulk import — the status it already had, not the date it was decided)
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2026-05-25 ·
Partially Confirmed → Confirmed
(codex)
Headlines indicate the US-Iran war was underway from late February or March and was still being discussed as ongoing or only near resolution in mid-to-late April, satisfying 'many weeks' even if 'many years' remains unproven. · Source: A timeline of Trump's shifting statements about how long the Iran war will last - PBS (Tue, 21 Apr 2026 07:00:00 GMT)