Set aside: this claim can't be checked against events, so it is not scored.
P357
Saudi Arabia will finance a tribal civil war in Yemen against the Houthis as part of isolating Iran's regional proxies ahead of a ground invasion.
What Jiang said
“what Saudi Arabia is doing is they're arming the tri local tribes people in in Yemen against the Houthies... Saudi Arabia wants wants to finance a civil war in in in Yemen”
Analysis
Framed as the third leg of neutralizing Iran's proxies (alongside Hezbollah and the Iraqi Shia militias) before the US can launch its ground invasion without a vulnerable flank.
Status history
- 2026-07-12 · Pending (claude_extract)
-
2026-09-25 ·
Pending → Unverifiable
(manual)
Not a forecast (claim audit 2026-09-26, operator-approved): in the 2026-07-11 lecture Jiang described something already true or under way. He describes this as a current Saudi action ('what Saudi Arabia is doing is they're arming... against the Houthies... wants to finance a civil war'), not as a future event he expects.