Still open: waiting on events (August-October 2026).
P351
Over the next two to three months, the Iran conflict will cycle through bursts of intense fighting followed by brief ceasefire pauses that then collapse again.
What Jiang said
“So I think for the next two to three months you will have a lot of back and forth. There's going to be some uh moments of of intense um warfare... and suddenly it will stop for for a few more days... and then for whatever reason uh we're back at war again.”
Analysis
Jiang says the political leadership in Iran wants a ceasefire for economic stability while the IRGC believes war is inevitable, producing a repeating pattern of theater-like calm followed by renewed fighting.
Status history
- 2026-07-12 · Pending (claude_extract)