Still open: waiting on events (Within a few months of May 2026).
P317
Trump will shift US policy from not supporting Taiwan independence to openly opposing Taiwan independence and supporting China-Taiwan unification.
What Jiang said
“over the next few months Trump rapidly changes his attitude”
Analysis
He predicts Trump will make a major break from prior strategic ambiguity on Taiwan. He argues this would be strategically useful because it transfers responsibility for resisting unification to Japan and South Korea.
Status history
- 2026-05-26 · Pending (codex)