All predictions · China

P317
Trump will shift US policy from not supporting Taiwan independence to openly opposing Taiwan independence and supporting China-Taiwan unification.

What Jiang said

“over the next few months Trump rapidly changes his attitude”

Analysis

He predicts Trump will make a major break from prior strategic ambiguity on Taiwan. He argues this would be strategically useful because it transfers responsibility for resisting unification to Japan and South Korea.

Source lecture

• Game Theory #25

Status history

• 2026-05-26 · Pending (codex)

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