All predictions · China

P314
The broad contours of a US-China grand bargain will be announced by May 15, 2026.

What Jiang said

“by tomorrow we should have the broad contours of a US-China grand bargain”

Analysis

He argues that Trump brought too many top business and finance executives to China for an ordinary diplomatic visit. In his view, that signals a major negotiated deal is ready to be announced.

Source lecture

• Game Theory #25

Status history

• 2026-05-26 · Pending (codex)

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