All predictions · Middle East

P262
Israel and Iran will agree to split the Middle East, with Iran controlling Shia areas and Israel controlling the Levant, after America withdraws

What Jiang said

“if America were to leave the scene, why why couldn't Israel and Iran come to a mutually satisfactory agreement that benefits both nations, right?”

Analysis

Once America leaves, Israel and Iran will negotiate a mutually satisfactory agreement splitting the region between them.

Source lecture

• Game Theory #15

Status history

• 2026-05-23 · Pending (glm)

Related predictions

• P261Germany and Russia will go to war against each other for the next 5-10 years before eventually forming an alliance Pending
• P263Japan is the only nation that will voluntarily have the elderly transfer power to the younger generation Pending
• P260Global population will shrink massively due to food scarcity caused by disruption to fertilizer trade from petroleum Pending
• P264Mass migration from the global south to Europe and North America will accelerate by 100 times due to resource wars, food scarcity, and water issues Pending
• P259Iran will cut undersea internet cables during the war, disrupting internet access for 20-30% of the world including Africa, northern Africa, India, the Middle East, and parts of Europe Pending