P232
The private credit/private equity bubble ($2 trillion) will not collapse as long as banks allow insolvent companies to continue operating

Status: Pending
Predicted
March 2026
Timeline
Indefinitely - can be sustained
Category
Global Economy
Confidence
High

What Jiang said

“the private equity bubble. Private credit bubble... Where private banks lend money to private companies. And people say it's two trillion dollars. And it hasn't collapsed yet? Why? Because the private banks allow the private companies who are losing money to keep on going.”

Analysis

Unlike the 2008 crisis where defaults were deliberately triggered, the current private credit bubble can be rolled over indefinitely because banks have no incentive to force bankruptcies that would hurt their own balance sheets

Source lecture

Status history

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