Set aside: this claim can't be checked against events, so it is not scored.
P232
The private credit/private equity bubble ($2 trillion) will not collapse as long as banks allow insolvent companies to continue operating
What Jiang said
“the private equity bubble. Private credit bubble... Where private banks lend money to private companies. And people say it's two trillion dollars. And it hasn't collapsed yet? Why? Because the private banks allow the private companies who are losing money to keep on going.”
Analysis
Unlike the 2008 crisis where defaults were deliberately triggered, the current private credit bubble can be rolled over indefinitely because banks have no incentive to force bankruptcies that would hurt their own balance sheets
Status history
- 2026-05-23 · Pending (glm)
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2026-09-25 ·
Pending → Unverifiable
(manual)
Not a forecast (claim audit 2026-09-26, operator-approved): in the 2026-03-31 lecture Jiang described something already true or under way. He is explaining why the bubble has not yet collapsed as a present state of affairs, not forecasting a future outcome.