Set aside: this claim can't be checked against events, so it is not scored.
P227
The 'Gay Bar Index' - gay bars empty out before military deployments
What Jiang said
“Gay bars are empty. Okay. So when people are, you know, don't have much to do, they go and you know go on dates”
Analysis
When people don't have much free time due to military deployment preparation, they stop going on dates; gay bars are currently empty.
Status history
- 2026-05-23 · Pending (glm)
-
2026-09-25 ·
Pending → Unverifiable
(manual)
Not a forecast (claim audit 2026-09-26, operator-approved): in the 2026-04-02 lecture Jiang described something already true or under way. He states 'Gay bars are empty' as a present observed fact, not a forward-looking claim about deployments.