P216
Fertilizer shortage from Iran war will cause global food crisis

Status: Pending
Predicted
April 2026
Timeline
2026
Category
Global Economy
Confidence
High

What Jiang said

“if this war persists, not only will countries run out of energy, they'll also run out of food...primarily used for fertilizers”

Analysis

Iran is constraining movement of phosphate, ammonium, sulfur, and urea through Strait of Hormuz - these are critical for fertilizers, meaning food production will collapse.

Source lecture

Status history

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