Leaning, not settled: the evidence points one way, but it is not scored yet.
P216
Fertilizer shortage from Iran war will cause global food crisis
What Jiang said
“if this war persists, not only will countries run out of energy, they'll also run out of food...primarily used for fertilizers”
Analysis
Iran is constraining movement of phosphate, ammonium, sulfur, and urea through Strait of Hormuz - these are critical for fertilizers, meaning food production will collapse.
Status history
- 2026-05-23 · Pending (glm)
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2026-09-25 ·
Pending → Likely Confirmed
(deepseek-v4.1-flash+claude-sonnet-5)
Multiple independent outlets (CFR, UN, WaPo, WEF, IFPRI) report an ongoing fertilizer shock from the Iran war contributing to rising global hunger, though a full-blown 'global food crisis' with a formal declared threshold is not yet confirmed. · Source: UN's worst-case scenario: Energy and fertilizer shock from Iran war could push nearly 19 million more into chronic hunger by 2030 - fortune.com (Tue, 21 Jul 2026 07:00:00 GMT)