All predictions · Iran Internal

P190
Iran's Mosaic defense structure makes a ceasefire impossible to implement - it would require a civil war within Iran to force provincial units to stop fighting

What Jiang said

“Whatever happens in Pakistan will not affect the outcome of the battlefield... In order for the Iranians to implement a ceasefire, they themselves will have to go and control these Mosaic units in the provinces, which basically means a civil war”

Analysis

Iran's 31 provinces operate as autonomous cells with no centralized command; the IRGC will not agree to a ceasefire because they don't trust Americans or Israelis

Source lecture

• Game Theory #20

Status history

• 2026-05-23 · Pending (glm)

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