Leaning, not settled: the evidence points one way, but it is not scored yet.
P146
US and Indonesian militaries will increasingly cooperate to close off the Strait of Malacca to Chinese trade.
What Jiang said
“the next step for America is to close off the straight of Malaa as well through Chinese trade. So, so America's exerting more control over the Panama Canal... America has signed a deal with Indonesia. So, so what we can expect is that America and Indonesia in Indonesia their militaries will start to cooperate more and more.”
Analysis
America and Indonesia will deepen military ties to control the Strait of Malacca choke point, completing the First Island Chain encirclement of China
Status history
- 2026-05-23 · Pending (glm)
-
2026-09-26 ·
Pending → Likely Wrong
(deepseek-v4.1-flash+claude-sonnet-5+audited)
Headlines show Indonesia and Singapore explicitly want the Strait of Malacca to remain 'open and free for all,' contradicting any move toward closing it off to Chinese trade, though US-Indonesia defense cooperation continues on other fronts. · Source: ‘Strategically aligned’: Singapore, Indonesia want Strait of Malacca open and free for all, say leaders - The Straits Times (Mon, 06 Jul 2026 07:00:00 GMT)