Leaning, not settled: the evidence points one way, but it is not scored yet.
P046
NATO will eventually send its own troops to fight Russia (in Ukraine)
What Jiang said
“so it's most likely that the summer offensive last uh last summer was a NATO plan and not a Ukrainian plan it's possible we also know that NATO special forces are in the country directing missile strikes against Russian forces okay which means what if if this is true and if um Ukraine loses the war meaning that it doesn't have enough soldiers to continue to fight this war what will NATO do yeah yeah I mean according to what happened to Vietnam War and uh the Athenians uh Expedition against Sicily it is most ly that the most likely outcome will be that NATO sends its own troops against Russia”
Analysis
Macron discussed sending French soldiers, British PM discussed conscription. NATO soldiers at Odessa 'all just going to die there.'
Status history
- 2026-05-22 · Imported into the tracker as Pending (bulk import — the status it already had, not the date it was decided)
-
2026-07-19 ·
Pending → Likely Wrong
(glm)
Trump's 'about-face' on U.S. troop moves in Europe trends against NATO deploying troops to fight Russia in Ukraine, but the near-term window remains open so it is not yet terminally wrong. · Source: NATO allies bewildered by Trump's about-face on U.S. troop moves in Europe - PBS (Fri, 22 May 2026 07:00:00 GMT)