Leaning, not settled: the evidence points one way, but it is not scored yet.
P044
The Ukraine war will NOT end -- Putin will drag it on without expanding it
What Jiang said
“so the first thing that Putin did was the Ukraine war right so in February 2022 Putin invaded Ukraine and at that time uh America was confident that three things would happen Okay the first thing that would happen is that Ukraine would destroy the Russian army”
Analysis
Ukraine is a black hole for NATO, draining money, weapons, manpower. Attacking Poland would unite NATO so Putin avoids expansion.
Status history
- 2026-05-22 · Imported into the tracker as Partially Confirmed (bulk import — the status it already had, not the date it was decided)
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2026-06-19 ·
Partially Confirmed → Likely Confirmed
(glm)
The core claim (war NOT ending, Putin dragging it on) is directly supported by headline 5 showing negotiations are extending rather than ending the war, but the window is still open and headline 1 (Belarus drawn deeper) mildly challenges the 'without expanding it' caveat. · Source: Negotiations Are Not Ending the Ukraine War – They Are Extending It - The Moscow Times (Fri, 27 Mar 2026 07:00:00 GMT)