Still open: waiting on events (Structural).
P025
Saudi Arabia is pushing the US toward war with Iran -- it cannot survive without US fighting Iran for it
What Jiang said
“so the third thing that Saudi Arabia learned from all this is is we really need America to fight Iran for us in the long term that's the only way we're going to survive as a nation okay we need we need to defeat Iran and we can't do it by ourselves we need America to do it for us”
Analysis
Saudi losses in Yemen war proved it cannot defeat Iran alone. Jared Kushner's $2B Saudi investment = purchasing influence. Saudi needs US military might.
Status history
- 2026-05-22 · Imported into the tracker as Partially Confirmed (bulk import — the status it already had, not the date it was decided)
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2026-06-19 ·
Imported into the tracker as Pending (bulk import — the status it already had, not the date it was decided)
Reclassified to pending. We simplified the scoreboard to record only clearly-confirmed or clearly-wrong outcomes; this call is still developing, so it returns to pending until it resolves.