All predictions · Global Economy

P269
Fertilizer shortage from Iran war will cause famine in the global south within months

What Jiang said

“If this were to stop for whatever reason, people in the south would be in a lot of trouble”

Analysis

If fertilizer trade from petroleum-producing north to the south stops, people in Africa, Central Asia, and South America will face starvation.

Source lecture

• Game Theory #15

Status history

• 2026-05-23 · Pending (glm)

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