Still open: waiting on events (2026-2046).
P172
The US Iran war will last many years, possibly 10-20 years
What Jiang said
“This war is not going to end soon. It won't be a few months. It'll probably be a few years. And quite honestly, um it may take 10 or 20 years.”
Analysis
This war will not end soon - not months but years, quite possibly 10 or 20 years as it serves America's strategic interest in controlling choke points
Status history
- 2026-05-23 · Pending (glm)
-
2026-09-25 ·
Pending → Likely Wrong
(deepseek-v4.1-flash+claude-sonnet-5)
A US-Iran peace framework was reached in June 2026, suggesting de-escalation rather than a decade-long war, though tensions and economic measures continue. · Source: U.S. and Iran Reach Framework for Peace - nytimes.com (Mon, 15 Jun 2026 07:00:00 GMT) -
2026-09-25 ·
Likely Wrong → Pending
(rejudge:deepseek-v4.1-flash)
Re-checked with the date rule + auditor: re-judged not_yet; no supported lean