Leaning, not settled: the evidence points one way, but it is not scored yet.
P070
US-China rapprochement (improved relations)
What Jiang said
“I think there'll be a rapprochement between China and America because both economies are dependent on each other. Right? So, I think this friendship between Putin and China won't last very long.”
Analysis
Both economies dependent on each other. One of two 'big geopolitical surprises in the next five years.'
Status history
- 2026-05-22 · Imported into the tracker as Pending (bulk import — the status it already had, not the date it was decided)
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2026-07-11 ·
Pending → Likely Wrong
(glm)
Headline 5 explicitly argues China is still a US adversary and there is no G2, headline 3 frames Trump's China visit in competitive/adversarial terms, and headline 2 is merely an op-ed aspiration — none show improved relations, while the most relevant evidence trends against rapprochement, though the 5-year window (through 2029) remains open. · Source: There Is No G2 Because China Is Still a US Adversary - Daily Signal (Thu, 23 Apr 2026 07:00:00 GMT) -
2026-07-23 ·
Likely Wrong → Likely Confirmed
(glm)
Trump's May 2026 visit to China and calls for US-China partnership show concrete diplomatic engagement trending toward improved relations, though the window remains open and the relationship could still reverse. · Source: Trump’s visit to China: Xi may get the better of Trump, fear Americans - The Straits Times (Thu, 14 May 2026 07:00:00 GMT)