Jiang Xueqin Called Trump's 2024 Win Months Before Election Day
Yes. Jiang Xueqin predicted Donald Trump would win the 2024 presidential election in an April 2024 lecture on his YouTube channel, @PredictiveHistory — seven months before the vote, while most mainstream forecasters were still treating the race as a toss-up. The claim is logged in this tracker's database as P001, and it was marked confirmed the moment the 2024 election results were reported that November.
The April 2024 Call
If you search "who predicted Trump 2024," the honest answer includes a long list of people who hedged until the final weeks of the campaign, plus a shorter list who called it early and were right for the wrong reasons. Jiang Xueqin's Trump prediction belongs to the early group. It was extracted from a lecture delivered in April 2024 — recorded, timestamped, and unedited on YouTube, which is what separates a public tracker like this one from an anecdote. Anyone can watch the original trump 2024 prediction on YouTube themselves rather than take a transcript's word for it, which is the whole point of publishing the source video alongside every claim on the Trump 2024 prediction page.
At the time Jiang made the call, Trump had not yet secured the nomination in the way the race would later be remembered, and national polling still showed a margin tight enough that outlets were reluctant to name a favorite. Jiang's April 2024 lecture did not hedge in that way — he stated the outcome as a near-certainty rather than a coin flip. The full context and sourcing for how that claim was verified against the eventual election results live on the P001 prediction page, where the original lecture timestamp and the confirming news source are both linked.
Right on the Ticket, Wrong on the Running Mate
A single correct headline call is easy to overstate, so it's worth looking at what came next. In the same window — May 2024 — Jiang made two predictions about Trump's running mate. He predicted Trump would pick Nikki Haley as his running mate (P002a), which was wrong; Trump chose JD Vance instead. But Jiang also predicted, separately, that JD Vance was a strong alternative VP pick (P002b), which was confirmed when Vance was announced at the August 2024 Republican Convention.
That split matters more than either result alone. It shows the tracker isn't cherry-picking hits: the same forecaster, working the same story in the same month, was right about the top of the ticket, wrong about his first VP guess, and right about his backup guess. That's the value of tracking every claim rather than just the ones that later look prophetic.
Where This Sits in the Overall Record
As of 2026-09-14, this tracker holds 390 predictions extracted from 179 source lectures (178 transcribed so far). Of those, 22 have resolved one way or the other — 16 confirmed, 6 wrong — for a headline accuracy of 73% on resolved claims. That 73% is worth reading carefully: it's a rate over a 22-prediction denominator, not a verdict on Jiang's judgment as a whole, since 351 predictions are still pending (either too early to call or judged unverifiable). The Trump 2024 election call is one of the earliest and cleanest resolutions in that small resolved set, which is part of why it gets cited often — it's a high-profile, unambiguous, publicly-timestamped hit, not proof that every claim will land the same way.
What Jiang Predicted Next
The 2024 win wasn't the end of Jiang's election forecasting — it was the start of a longer thread about what Trump does with the office. Later lectures extend the prediction chain forward: that Trump will try to stay in office past 2028, possibly by running as vice president with Don Jr. as president (P003); that he's likely to run again in 2028 (P327); and that any second Trump term would come with attempts to federalize control over state elections (P380). None of these have resolved yet — they're all still open, sitting in the 351-prediction pending pool alongside dozens of other 2026-2028 election claims. The 2024 win is the one call in this thread that's already been checked against reality; the rest remain forecasts, tracked the same way, waiting on events that haven't happened.
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